Kontakt
Wie einkaufen
Versand
Kaufberater
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
How Useful Are Estimated Dsge Model Forecasts
Englisch
43 b
Bis zu 30 Tage Rückgaberecht
Kunden kauften auch
DSGE models are a prominent tool for forecasting at central banks and the competitive forecasting performance of these models relative to alternatives--including official forecasts--has been documented. When evaluating DSGE models on an absolute basis, however, we find that the benchmark estimated medium scale DSGE model forecasts inflation and GDP growth very poorly, although statistical and judgmental forecasts forecast as poorly. Our finding is the DSGE model analogue of the literature documenting the recent poor performance of macroeconomic forecasts relative to simple naive forecasts since the onset of the Great Moderation. While this finding is broadly consistent with the DSGE model we employ--ie, the model itself implies that under strong monetary policy especially inflation deviations should be unpredictable--a "wrong" model may also have the same implication. We therefore argue that forecasting ability during the Great Moderation is not a good metric to judge the usefulness of model forecasts.
Informationen zum Buch
Englisch
Verschenken Sie dieses Buch noch heute
Es ist ganz einfach
1 Legen Sie das Buch in Ihren Warenkorb und wählen Sie den Versand als Geschenk 2 Wir schicken Ihnen umgehend einen Gutschein 3 Das Buch wird an die Adresse des beschenkten Empfängers geliefertDas könnte Sie auch interessieren
/
Hardcover
14.99
€
/
Broschur
15.89
€
/
Hardcover
37.79
€
/
Broschur
106.49
€
Hallo! Ich bin Libroamiko, dein Buchberater.
Wie kann ich dir helfen?